Retrospectively

Obvious

 

"If I take 30 steps linearly, I get to 30.

If I take 30 steps exponentially, I get to a billion."

R. Kurzweil

 

Manifesto

We part from the following assumptions:

  • We are not as smart as we think we are.
  • We tend to dismiss information that goes against our views.
  • We tend to find stories and patterns in sparse data.
  • We highly discount the future and prefer "certain" near-term outcomes (i.e., marshmallow experiment).
  • We react more strongly to moments of loss.
  • We tend to settle for comfort.
  • We tend to think linearly but live in a non-linear world.  

To guide our investing principles:

  1. Develop strong ideas and hold on to them loosely. Beliefs are merely hypotheses to be tested, not protected.
  2. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough. 
  3. In order to make bold, concentrated bets we must be well capitalized to execute on them. 
  4. A contrarian view is not merely opposing an established one - it requires independent and fundamental reasoning.
  5. Focus on asking the proper questions - the answers depend on it.
  6. Measure what is measurable, and make measure of what cannot be measured.
  7. Most variables fall outside our control. Leave room for luck and randomness in your model and adjust your margin of safety accordingly.
  8. Technology drives us forward. 
  9. Our portfolio companies are like our family - we spend time taking care of them.
  10. The time to getting to a retrospectively obvious state is compressing but the difficulty and energy required to getting there is not necessarily decreasing.
  11. Invest in people that demonstrate an ability and conviction to execute on bold ideas.
  12. Sometimes the best action is no action at all.

Investing Themes

Crypto

For the first time ever, we have a system that works on trustless trust.

Crypto is a new chapter in game theory where value is unlocked, payoffs are optimized, and a redistribution of wealth is created. 

Bitcoin has weathered over a decade of attacks and emerged as a strong store of value.

At a minimum, it is a hedge against inflation and is empowering sovereignty and financial independence.

Crypto is not immune to market delusions, irrational behavior and bubbles. It remains a speculation at this stage but one with a compelling asymmetric risk-reward profile.

Healthcare

We're living longer but not necessarily healthier. 

A disproportionate share of spend is happening in the "last mile" of life. 

A shift from reactive to preventive, outcomes-based care is necessary. 

Smartphones are medical devices.

The microbiome holds the keys to many unsolved medical mysteries.

 

 

Cannabis

Cannabis as a medicine. Treating depression, controlling seizures and stimulating the appetite of chemo patients are among the many potential medical applications.

Regulation is necessary. It brings transparency to an otherwise opaque and corrupt market.

When, not if. Two out of three Americans believe it should be legal (up from only 25% in the late 1990s; Gallup). A shift from the informal to the formal economy generates more taxes to invest in healthcare and education.